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Bill Gates. The Road Ahead. Chapter 1. The First Part of the Road. I wrote my first program for a computer when I was thirteen This book will try to answer. And in , none had done it better than Trey, as Bill Gates was called. . A recent book, The Making of Microsoft by Daniel Ichbiah and. best-selling books and started his own charity with his wife. Gates was fascinated with electronics from a young age. In he read about a small technology.
You can produce units and auction it off to capture the most value, so the people who want it first pay more. A competitor might just do flat pricing avoiding customer wait. site became larger than site. Consistent immediate price is what matters. site does use automated pricing though. Consultants who help you make custom downloading decisions at low cost, saving you time and lowering price Consensus site reviews may be enough.
We have homogeneous-enough preferences that a 4. Always-on video Gates predicted video that would read lips to make voice recognition better Privacy concerns may have reversed this trend; now people actively shutter webcams Paying for your ad attention. Why has no network been created that pays people for their attention?
This does happen with paying for timeshare vacations. This has to be somewhat profitable. The ad rates for a pay-for-attention market eventually fall below search itnent, so companies would rather put their marketing budget there. Though Facebook lookalike is close in concept Customers have been fine with free information subsidized by ads.
Gates predicted a positive feedback loop where talent disperses, causing employers to relax their location requirements. Cities may themselves be entrenched, given the many amenities.
Piracy probably prevented this. More automated hiring of employees and contractors, screening out their resumes. And automated tests? The entrenchment of Craigslist through network effects might actually be a detriment to efficiency and technological ability. Too easy for applicants to cheat?
Hard data too fuzzy — has to go through manual layer soon after, which is where most of the cost is anyway? And I do reject very quickly.
Only takes 30 seconds each. Then the dotcom crash came, tech was in winter for a few years, and then the new business models they came pretty quickly after that. The final chapter does deal with major concerns people have about the Internet — I share those here. What will happen to jobs? New professions and industries will flourish as others fade. There is not a finite number of jobs in the world. When people lose jobs, resources are freed up to work on something more productive.
Advancing productivity leads to broad benefits that may cause some to suffer temporarily eg eliminating middlemen from commerce People will need to reinvent themselves. In general, seek to acquire new interests and skills throughout your life.
Education needs to focus on general problem solving and facility with computers. The beauty is that the extra cost of educational material access is zero. A computer connected to the Internet must be available to every citizen, not just the elite, for the Internet to be fully integrated into society. Every prediction about major advances in AI has proved to be overly optimistic. Overindulgence and overreliance on the Internet The Internet will be pervasive and life and replace much of our current experiences.
This makes a failure of the network worrying. Cryptography breaking would be disastrous. Breaking RSA — Paul Kocher carefully timed how long it took the system to decrypt them, which gave enough information to find the private key. All your activity will be recorded and your Wallet PC will measure many things. Should insurance be able to see what you eat at home? Should an employer see what you watch on Netflix?
Navigational aids will point us to information relevant to us.
Small players disrupt because they have to — the incumbent has raised the barrier of entry too high so small players have to start low cost eg PCs vs mainframes.
Making things easier pretty much guarantees it will be done more often. Over time, the new machine finds a place in our everyday lives because it offers convenience, saves labor, and inspires us to new creative heights. Goods and services and new jobs arise. It assumes a trusted place besides our other tools. A new generation grows up with it, changing and humanizing it, playing with it.
The first documents that achieve widespread use will offer new functionality rather than simply duplicate the older medium. Content needs to be specially authored with the medium in mind.
It is impossible to do everything well. Companies do well by picking a narrow slice of the pie and focusing on it. The free market allows rapid innovation on many fronts in parallel, with most being failures but all contributing to shared learning and rapid progress. The marketplace decides which approaches win and lose, getting to the right solution faster than with central planning.
Thus government should stay out of creating technology standards. By mandating complete compatibility with past machines eg mandating PCs compatible with mainframes , they can stifle innovation and progression to new standards. Killer app — a use of technology so attractive to consumers it fuels market forces and makes the underlying invention indispensable.
The web abstracted away messy server connections, commands, and code. The browser and https abstract away RSA Similarly, crypto needs to make the blockchain invisible — users get only the benefit. The trend in hardware was from specific to general purpose, enabled by software. For the Internet, think — how should information move?
New communication modes bring their own sort of etiquette Before phones, meetings happened face to face, likely with a meal and hours long visit.
With phones, short calls were enabled. Consider like lines in a conversation, not like letters. Reply-all, CC had their own etiquette. With texts, tweets, Snapchats, even more etiquette emoji, read but not responded.
You might have warned your friends at the Acme Buggy Whip Company to polish up their resumes and learn something about engines, but would you have known to invest in real estate for strip malls? Like Warren Buffett avoiding computers until Gates showed him how to play bridge online. The gold lays deeper and in different places than prospectors realize. People in a gold rush dream of quick riches and overinvest in the obvious areas, ignoring subtler or longer-term opportunities.
Virtuous Cycles A de facto standard emerges when one way of doing something gets a slight advantage over competing ways.
For the IBM PC and MS-DOS: thousands of software applications appeared like Lotus ; companeis began making comaptible accessory card add-ons extending the hardware like floppy disk drives, memory expansion. Gates argues that once the standard is set, sales skyrocket — though this may just be coincident with momentum identifyign a winner, rather than the consumer certainty of a known standard causing more sales.
Their high margin long-distance service has subsidized underpriced local service, given in the name of universal service. They argue the Internet will be overwhelmed by traffic. Bill Gates and Computers Early on, Gates was thrilled with immediate feedback from whether program works or not. If it was cheap, people would find all kinds of new applications, and software is the key to delivering on the full potential of the machines. We have to earn our leadership position every day.
What's special about Shortform: The world's highest quality book summaries - comprehensive, concise, and everything you need to know Interactive exercises that teach you to apply what you've learned Discussion communities - get the best advice from other readers Get the world's best book summaries now A Brief History of Computing Over time, the new machine finds a place in our everyday lives because it offers convenience, saves labor, and inspires us to new creative heights.
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